Death of booze, a very angry god

Title may feel a little harsh but how does the future of alcoholic drinks really look like? A more or less shared feeling within the industry is that, at best, it looks uncertain. According to the IWRS, 2020 has seen an 8% decrease in global consumption. At first glance it seems that the situation of global emergency we are all experiencing right now may have had the biggest impact on trends, however if we think on a larger scale it becomes gradually clear that the world is somehow de-alcoholizing. The last quarter century has been characterised by a staggering one-third drop within leading western markets such as France, Germany and Britain, only partially counter-balanced by exponential booms in the traditionally 'dryer' East, driving forces being Russia, Japan and China. Reasons for the global drought can be broke down into social, political and spiritual challenges.

Trend mutations relate closely with the last two generations of consumers, both GenX and Millennials have plainly shown some appetites away from physical social interaction. Whether this reflects the massive offer of digital entertainment or a deeper existential necessity we'll never know, it is evident though that we live a phase in which average human behaviour is pulling away from bars and push domestically towards a screen, the current post-pandemic situation can only reinforce that while society is being reshaped. In parallel there has been a massive rise in cannabis consumption, which suggests a switch. Canada, for example, has gone from 200 tons/year produced in 1994 to 700 in 2015, US shows similar patterns while over the same period use among EU teenagers has almost doubled. Nixon's "War on Drugs" seems at the end of its road and with it western iron-fist policy on psycotropic substances. In May 2009 Gil Kerlikowske, director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) signaled that the Obama administration did not plan to significantly alter drug enforcement and that it would not use the term "War on Drugs" because counter-productive. Use of non-medical cannabis has been decreminalised in 16 US states and legalised in other 14 since 2012, as a consequence global legal marijuana market size is expected to reach USD 73.6 billion by 2027 and is anticipated to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.1% during the forecast period. Now imagine pot stocks.. Yes, they follow suit. Volatility is still high but the sector is thriving long-term and while still falling short of alcohol lobbying, their spending has quintuplicated to USD 5 million in the last six years. Looking it form a slightly different angle, in 2020 cannabis lobbying spending has surpassed AB-InBev contribution to the booze cause. Combining this momentum with the global governance's welcoming approach to weed and the consumers trends outlined above is easy to deduce where the stigma is moving towards. On the back of environmental groups and the World Health Organisation (WHO) recent success in influencing World Economic Forum (WEF) stance on human nutrition habits and more specifically advocating for a fall in global meat consumption "to curb global warming and improve food security", we sense a future in which booze may be the victim. Furtherly, there is a widespread tendency of individuals embracing with spiritual causes and while secularism seems alive and breeding sheer numbers say otherwise. We notice in fact a vast transformation within the arena of organised religions. Religious communities of non-drinking persuasion have increased at a much faster rate than the overall population growth over the same time period reaching 1.8 billion on 2016, a rise of 50% since 2000 and set to improve pace over the next ten years. These kind of tendencies run on a totally different level if compared to politics and economics more in general, they are paths initiated so much back in time that human policy can do little to control.

The outlook on the industry looks therefore pessimistic, and it hurts to write so. It will partially depend on big players' political actions and the decisions to be taken between going along with the swap in demand or inducing fresh enthusiasm for the industry. I believe there is room for long-term growth within the low-alcohol segment but fear a black swan masked by global action sometime not far in the future. Ultimately it makes sense to prepare for a potential revolution but also feels essential to defend the great work done by the whole drink community in the last twenty years when a great share of consumers moved towards quality rather than quantity. Educational marketing played a critical role in this, managing to penetrate those markets traditionally reluctant and beginning converting them in the most ethical way possible. Plus, humans love booze. It is a relation that goes back since the mists of time, Bacchus has always loved to make some noise, I bet the God himself will come to rescue us when we need him. In the meantime let's raise a glass, a pint, or a shot, the prayer will be heard.